In Sitges. None of the things in the picture is my property - like a real influencer
This compares unfavorably to the bubble-ponzi market. This is my fair objective assessment of this market. Yes NVDA 0.00%↑ is cheap according to future earnings in 2025 or 2026, but is that a cycle top? This is not a defensive company. TSLA 0.00%↑ is a low quality cyclical at 90 times? earnings. Deserves 9 times earnings imho. It could work out, with a low probability scenario where they are the only ones to figure full AI driving and AI robots. I think that AI models will be a commodity, just like human manual work is, but some applications that requires capital or have customers will have value.
There have been some disappointments like a French nanocap startup which had lower earnings (but still is solidly profitable), and Riots in New Caledonia destroying some properties of another French nano cap. I had written riot as a risk and it happened! But these properties were valued at zero by the market and therefore the stock did not move down.
In the H1, have reinforced some hated companies like Intrum and Bastide Le Confort, or Japanese tech ideas and the stock prices remained under pressure, although operationally all is doing pretty well in my opinion.
What has worked operationally were serial acquirers Newlat (recent article) and Supreme PLC doing acquisitions. Even CK Hutchison did a smaller acquisition in the infrastructure segment.
Other than these, emerging market stocks have been flat or drifting lower. I have zero worries about them and the opportunity is still great.
There are now more than 4300 subscribers. My goals are 5000 and then 10000. Thanks to the new subscribers and I hope you will like it. We are here to show long term value investing.
I could not publish a full thesis because I finished developing a tool for us investors!
This is called stocklinks, it incorporates a self made algorithm and google Gemini AI. Testing and fine tuning was actually exhausting, going back and forth with options, and building it was initially fast.
I am excited about opportunities with AI and automating prompts, while aware of the limitations in cognitive ability. This tool will now have a soft launch so that I can test the user on boarding experience progressively.
I published two paid analysis in May, and talking about AI, one of them is about the risk of AI disruption or not for Text, a Polish software company. I think that I am in a pretty good position to understand the company with my work on the AI tool and my experience in E-commerce. LINK
The other one is about a super boring defensive nano cap. LINK
Some public reviews were on Latin American stocks listed in the USA: LINK, and on the comeback of small caps: LINK
Football / Soccer interlude
In other news, my fitness is back pretty good with my age, I ran another 6k yesterday starting with 3k slowly uphill. I hate it but I do it! It is very very important folks. My weight is as good as it has ever been. I recovered from a ankle injury playing football (soccer) around April. Strangely, I get messed up with injuries in football but my overall fitness improves despite this. I recommend anything where technique, team spirit or tactics motivates us to move with short sprints and various movements, wether it’s basket ball, football, tennis or the new sport in fashion, padel. I am not sure that American football or Rugby are very safe for us normal people!
I enjoyed the Euro 2024 and the Portugal Slovakia game was a very dramatic scenario like a 90s kids sports movie with a hero trying to win, now we (France) will play them, and I am happy whatever team wins.
Ronaldo, the 39 years old aging superstar, was under mental pressure because he knew that if he lost the game, it would probably be his last competitive match representing Portugal, so he cried as he missed a crucial penalty at the end of the game. (Well shot but the keeper from Slovakia blocked it). Later, there was a penalty shoot out, because it was 0-0, and who went to shoot the first Penalty? Ronaldo, under immense pressure, maybe his last kick for his country, against the same goal keeper that denied him 30 minutes before! And he goes to confront his pressure and he puts it in. Incredible! Then, the Portuguese keeper, out of nowhere, blocks 3 penalties in a row and steal the show from all the superstars on the Portuguese team, just like in 2016. Blocking three penalties in a row rarely happens, I never saw it before.
In 2016, Eder, a relatively unknown Portuguese player, came in the Euro final as a substitute to score a goal in Extra time, and the super star Ronaldo was watching injured from the bench, first crying from leaving the final on a stretcher and then full of happiness as the team won for him. The hero of the day scored a goal that will make history for ever. Story
Football, or Soccer, has something very special in the sense that national competitions are only every two years, and for most teams, finals are every 30 years, so stakes and emotions are super high.
I did no write up reviews.. too busy!! I enjoyed Guy Davis H1 report, a fellow deep value brother. I am a bit different because I have both deep value and growth companies at reasonable or cheap entry points.
The great news is that I did not sell anything, it has been three months, and I added to my convictions in the quarter. In the future I plan to sell much less and adopt the coffee can strategy more and more. I will maybe leave some returns and also get less taxes. My large dividend income thanks to past value buys, will allow me to open a new position from time to time, and to own LVMH one day would be nice!
There is one new position disclosed below that I will cover soon in a write up. This is a high quality position, and the only reason I added a new quality position is because May and June sent a lot of dividends, and it works well with the coffee can strategy. Since it is a large cap, the name will be public in the writeup. The writeup will be unique in that It will confront various investors points of view and add mine.
Movements and full portfolio table below, with an update on each position added.
Supporting the publication gives access to:
All the write ups - aiming for 10 a year.
Full portfolio with diversified 50+ mostly EM/small value ideas with short pitches.
Watchtlists in Koyfin with over 200 Emerging and Hidden champions stocks (free with Koyfin).
