Emerging value updates 5

earnings seasons and set for the new year

Hello everyone !

Here comes another update. The earnings season is in full swing..

Summary.

1. Newsletter update

2. Write ups

3. Company updates

4. Movements

5. Surprise

I have finally reached the milestone of 5,000 subscribers. Thanks to the new subscribers and the supporters that helped along the way.

With 5000, I will start looking for adequate sponsorship for a small section that does not block the view, like affiliate links that can bring value for everyone. That’s the plan anyway. Why sponsorships? I think they allow for more peaceful and focused writing versus subscription only.

Example: I use Koyfin for all my data analysis on stocks, graphs, and watchlists, and I have a discount with my affiliate link here. It’s a product with real value for me. The free version is great too!

• I have updated the article with 50+ portfolio positions for 2025 and beyond ($ premium).

• It provides a complete portfolio overview, including 27 (!) EM companies and a dozen European hidden champions, plus some more popular names. This article also includes a spreadsheet with all write ups links and major updates.

In a similar fashion I enjoyed:

A model portfolio going into 2025 - by nodeepdives

I find Milicom interesting, but the telco industry scares me with problems like the ones experienced by CK Hutchison, Verizon and Liberty Latin America. So I have been searching for other industries.

I have covered Insurance company Catalana Occidente on the newsletter. Otherwise, I favor more defensive industries but it is a very interesting article.

Here is also the classic update by MemyselfandI (Value and opportunity).

23+1 stocks for 2025

I love that he includes the holding periods, as he is truly a long term investor. These are on average a bit more cyclical and industrial than my taste, but will perform well in a cyclical recovery in Europe. The German love industry, they cannot help it :). A really good set of European hidden champions. Gerard Perrier that he held for 12 years is a good example of investing done right. Bouvet was a homerun.

I like DCC Plc, I like Stef, that I know a bit from the French forum.

I wrote an article on

Jardine Matheson part 1: Astra Indonesia

I liked the Shin Mart Write up in Japan by simplerinvestor

I liked the JD write up by Asian Century stocks - It’s $ paywalled, as well as Subaru. As I had bought JD and Alibaba in 2024 as a good contrarian, the JD deep dive was welcomed.

I wrote an analysis of Text SA earnings call ($) because the situation is complex.

Very quick updates.

PayPal: Released earnings and guidance. Low growth and low guidance. Yes the company is more efficient, is stable and returns a lot of cash, but for me it is still not going in the right direction. They are only talking about more payments and more payments. This is not the PayPal opportunity. The PayPal opportunity is more products. The Kaspi way. Not making you pay 30 times a day for your bread, your newspaper and your coffee for a 1c fee. And the PayPal app looks like it was made for Windows NT! They have hired a head of advertising coming from Uber, so hopefully they release some revamped app, and plan to cross sell more products at the PayPal investor day in February. If there is an activist please contact me. Well, actually it’s not that hard to understand what is needed, you don’t need to contact me. In the mean time, It should be valued like a low growth bluechip with no inspiration. A good thing that they are buying back heavily.

Intrum, the collection company restructuring is underway. Earnings were published and appeared positive, but to be fair I do not understand it well. They have cash ebitda, ebitda, ebit, and so many alternate metrics, it is too confusing.

The transcript tells more than the earnings release. Link to transcript.

What I understand basically is that when they sold the backbook to pursue a “capital light” strategy, they did not replace the book, which is similar to “reserves” in a oil company. That reduced earnings. Interest costs went up too.

In the call, they mention more deals coming and buying more book this year, and expect to grow the servicing business. This is needed for the company to reduce debt.

Bastide The french healthcare service company had some contracts wins and sold some loss making subsidiary to reduce debt. It also benefits from lower interest rates in Europe. at 4.7 times EV/EBITDA, despite some capex heavy model, It is cheap.

Terravest with another acquisition and good results. While the stock is now quite expensive at 13.6 EV/EBITDA according to Koyfin, the management team is good and can continue to create value.

I sold Alibaba for a 45% return more or less. Despite saying I will hold forever, I sold. Shame on me, but I immediately bought some other companies notably Alpha Purchase by MadeinJapan. I am also entering in another Latam stock that almost no one talks about ($), described below:

More updates in the premium section:

• Unkown UK serial acquirer with a first acquisition in a year

• 2 French nano caps good earnings releases.

• EM finance company business model showing turnaround completed with net profits x3 and dividends resumed.

• Lab testing company compounder results.