For the year, the portfolio now back to 0% on March 3, thanks to Trump and the war as well as my ill timed Memory investment.
Overall these numbers are not significant and we are all waiting for markets to move in earnings again to produce results.
I observe that many quality companies are flat or down, while deep value and semi conductor exposed cyclical names are up a lot.
It is a good time to invest in quality companies in my opinion.
But it could also be a generational opportunity in some cyclical bottlenecks like semi conductor equipment, memory and rare metals. Lastly, for this type of businesses, I am not an expert. It is true that the Nvidia trade was legendary, and many value investors dismissed it.
I think that the memory trade is similar to the Nvidia trade and I have put a small portion of the portfolio -2%- in the memory trade. It is some speculation. I am not an expert on Semi conductors, and you should rather follow me for the value and quality ideas, not for that. Maybe my enter marks the top of the cycle, but I don’t think it is.
Macro is taking a more important part in recent times with the recent wars and AI Capex. The last decade nothing happened, this decade everything happens.
Emerging markets are direct beneficiaries of the commodity and resources for AI and the energy transition trends.
I am thinking to exit some more defensive names that worked well post covid to get into faster growth, with more focusing on macro trends if I find it (Electrification, AI, Copper) at value price. This is hard to find at value prices. If I don’t, I will keep adding to E-commerce and other quality compounders.
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